WSH vs TEX prediction for August 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.0 - WSH 4.0. TEX is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
TEX
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXWSH
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,352 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.0 — WSH 4.0
Actual
TEX 0 — WSH 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%97 mph18% whiff
KC26%86 mph36% whiff
SI14%96 mph11% whiff
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL38%83 mph40% whiff
SI29%94 mph8% whiff
FC14%90 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
102°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.083 Total: 1.043
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.51ERA
5.24FIP
9.02K/9
4.77BB/9
1.56WHIP
TEX
4.21ERA
4.36FIP
8.37K/9
3.75BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
2.2 runs
43.4% win
TEX F5
2.0 runs
38.6% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Jacob deGrom SPDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.