FINAL: VAN 4 — ANA 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected VAN 3.0 - ANA 3.92 (ANA at 60.6% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 7.0.
VAN
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
ANA
3.92
Projected Score
Win Probability
VANANA
+1.5
Spread (VAN)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ANA W5VAN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.3% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
ANA
2.83.95.0
VAN
1.93.04.1
Projected
VAN 3.0 — ANA 3.92
Actual
VAN 4 — ANA 5
Pick Results
Over 7.0totalWIN+0.73u
Game Odds
VAN ML
+165
ANA ML
-183
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
7.0
Edge Detail
VAN Edge
+1.7%
ANA Edge
-4.1%
Projected Total
6.92
-0.08 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Lukas Dostal
30-203.56 GAA87.2% SV
Leevi Meriläinen
8-103.40 GAA89.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 34.8% – 36.3% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Market is efficient. ANA is the right side (VAN 1-9 L10), but -155 is above the model's 59.6% breakeven and both goalies are weak and unconfirmed.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
ANA 60.6%
+1.7 pts
Spread
+1.5
+1.7 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.