FINAL: CBJ 7 — COL 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CBJ 2.77 - COL 3.77 (COL at 55.8% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 5.5.
CBJ
2.77
Projected Score
VS
O/U 5.5
COL
3.77
Projected Score
Win Probability
CBJCOL
+1.5
Spread (CBJ)
5.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL L5CBJ
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
2.73.84.9
CBJ
1.72.83.9
Projected
CBJ 2.77 — COL 3.77
Actual
CBJ 7 — COL 2
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalWIN+0.70u
Game Odds
CBJ ML
+107
COL ML
-121
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
5.5
Edge Detail
CBJ Edge
-4.1%
COL Edge
+1.0%
Projected Total
6.54
+1.04 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Mackenzie Blackwood
23-102.66 GAA89.9% SV
Jet Greaves
26-193.22 GAA88.1% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 32.7% – 34.3% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
The model's COL edge is flat at -125 (+0.2 raw), COL is on a B2B with a confirmed Wedgewood (.889) who is no better than CBJ's Talbot (.894), and the market already prices COL's quality.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 55.8%
-4.1 pts
Spread
+1.5
-4.1 pts
Total
5.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.