FINAL: PHI 2 — MIN 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 2.37 - MIN 3.55 (MIN at 63.1% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.0.
PHI
2.37
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.0
MIN
3.55
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIMIN
+1.5
Spread (PHI)
6.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
MIN W5PHI L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.2% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
2.53.54.6
PHI
1.32.43.5
Projected
PHI 2.37 — MIN 3.55
Actual
PHI 2 — MIN 4
Pick Results
Over 6.0totalPUSH+0.00u
Game Odds
PHI ML
+160
MIN ML
-178
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.0
Edge Detail
PHI Edge
-1.5%
MIN Edge
-1.0%
Projected Total
5.91
-0.09 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jesper Wallstedt
18-92.06 GAA92.0% SV
Dan Vladar
29-143.23 GAA88.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 29.3% – 30.8% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
MIN is the best-supported side (Wallstedt.919 confirmed vs Vladar.885 confirmed, MIN 4-1 L5), but -185 is above the model's fair price of about -172. Watch-list only: becomes a lean at -172 or shorter.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 63.1%
-1.5 pts
Spread
+1.5
-1.5 pts
Total
6.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.