FINAL: COL 2 — NSH 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 4.06 - NSH 2.98 (COL at 63.0% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
COL
4.06
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
NSH
2.98
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLNSH
-1.5
Spread (COL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NSH W4COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.2% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
NSH
1.93.04.1
COL
3.04.15.1
Projected
COL 4.06 — NSH 2.98
Actual
COL 2 — NSH 3
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalLOSS-0.50u
Game Odds
COL ML
-200
NSH ML
+190
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
COL Edge
-3.7%
NSH Edge
+2.5%
Projected Total
7.04
+0.54 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Juuse Saros
28-222.77 GAA90.8% SV
Mackenzie Blackwood
23-102.66 GAA89.9% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 65.7% – 67.2% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
The model likes NSH at +180 (38.3% vs 35.7% implied), but away dogs are poison. The model is also 4 to 7 pts below market on COL across the slate, which looks like home-ice undervaluation rather than real NSH value.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 63.0%
-3.7 pts
Spread
-1.5
-3.7 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.