FINAL: MTL 5 — UTA 4. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MTL 3.55 - UTA 3.37 (MTL at 54.1% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
MTL
3.55
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
UTA
3.37
Projected Score
Win Probability
MTLUTA
+1.5
Spread (MTL)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
UTA
2.33.44.5
MTL
2.53.54.6
Projected
MTL 3.55 — UTA 3.37
Actual
MTL 5 — UTA 4
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalWIN+0.61u
Game Odds
MTL ML
+102
UTA ML
-118
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
MTL Edge
-4.7%
UTA Edge
+1.1%
Projected Total
6.92
+0.42 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Karel Vejmelka
38-203.25 GAA87.3% SV
Jacob Fowler
9-62.17 GAA92.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 52.0% – 53.6% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
The UTA edge is +0.2 pts raw (55.2% vs 55.0%). Both goalies are weak (Cossa.875, Dobes.853), and MTL may start Fowler (.925, 9 GP), a risk the model may not see.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MTL 54.1%
-4.7 pts
Spread
+1.5
-4.7 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.