FINAL: PIT 2 — BOS 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 3.52 - BOS 3.37 (PIT at 54.1% win probability). The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
PIT
3.52
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BOS
3.37
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITBOS
-1.5
Spread (PIT)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BOS W5PIT L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (1,412 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
2.33.44.5
PIT
2.43.54.6
Projected
PIT 3.52 — BOS 3.37
Actual
PIT 2 — BOS 6
Pick Results
Over 6.5totalWIN+0.60u
Game Odds
PIT ML
-110
BOS ML
+101
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
PIT Edge
-4.6%
BOS Edge
+2.5%
Projected Total
6.89
+0.39 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Jeremy Swayman
31-182.31 GAA91.2% SV
Arturs Silovs
19-122.98 GAA88.8% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 51.8% – 53.5% home win probability
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
The market has this near pick'em (BOS -108, PIT -112) despite Swayman (.9125) vs Silovs (.888) and BOS 7-3 vs PIT 3-7 over the last 10. The model has BOS at 52.2% vs 49.6% vig-removed. The edge is small, away-ML historical support history is only 42.3%, and ML is disabled in calibration, so size at half a unit.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 54.1%
-4.6 pts
Spread
-1.5
-4.6 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.