TOR vs UTA prediction for October 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects UTA 3.93 - TOR 2.89. UTA is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The spread is -1.5 and the total is 6.5.
UTA
3.93
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
TOR
2.89
Projected Score
Win Probability
UTATOR
-1.5
Spread (UTA)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.6% (1,278 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
1.82.94.0
UTA
2.83.95.0
Projected
UTA 3.93 — TOR 2.89
Actual
UTA 5 — TOR 4
Game Odds
UTA ML
-162
TOR ML
+136
Puck Line
-1.5
Total
6.5
Goalie Matchup
Sergei Bobrovsky
27-232.97 GAA90.7% SV
Karel Vejmelka
38-201.76 GAA92.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 64.4% – 66.0% home win probability
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.