FINAL: NSH 2 — VGK 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NSH 3.24 - VGK 3.15 (NSH at 51.7% win probability). The spread is 1.5 and the total is 6.5.
NSH
3.24
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
VGK
3.15
Projected Score
Win Probability
NSHVGK
+1.5
Spread (NSH)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
VGK W4NSH L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 43.6% (1,278 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VGK
2.13.14.2
NSH
2.23.24.3
Projected
NSH 3.24 — VGK 3.15
Actual
NSH 2 — VGK 5
Pick Results
NSH MLmlLOSS-0.50u
NSH MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Game Odds
NSH ML
+110
VGK ML
-130
Puck Line
+1.5
Total
6.5
Edge Detail
NSH Edge
+4.0%
VGK Edge
-8.2%
Projected Total
6.39
-0.11 vs line
Goalie Matchup
Carter Hart
11-32.41 GAA90.6% SV
Juuse Saros
28-222.72 GAA91.5% SV
Special Teams
Power Play
Penalty Kill
90% Confidence: 50.4% – 52.1% home win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NSH 51.7%
+4.0 pts
Spread
+1.5
+4.0 pts
Total
6.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets NHL Hockey Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded NHL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the NHL 2026 season report card.