Aston Villa vs Newcastle United prediction for October 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Newcastle United 1.61 - Aston Villa 1.56. Newcastle United is favored with a 37.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Newcastle United
1.61
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Aston Villa
1.56
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Newcastle UnitedDrawAston Villa
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.8% (1,661 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Aston Villa
0.81.62.3
Newcastle United
0.81.62.4
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle United1.61
Aston Villa1.56
16.3Shots16.8
5.5On Target6.1
5.6Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.5%
Over 1.5
82.7%
Over 2.5
61.2%
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
38.8%
BTTS
40.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
6.5%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Newcastle United
2.19
Draw
3.78
Aston Villa
3.26
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.