Belgium vs USA prediction for July 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects USA 1.64 - Belgium 1.54. USA is favored with a 39.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
USA
1.64
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Belgium
1.54
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
USADrawBelgium
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.1% (1,134 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Belgium
0.81.52.3
USA
0.91.62.4
Expected Goals (xG)
USA1.64
Belgium1.54
20.5Shots18.5
7.3On Target6.8
6.4Corners5.9
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.7%
Over 1.5
79.4%
Over 2.5
58.3%
Over 3.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
41.7%
BTTS
66.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.7%
1-0
6.0%
Match Context
WCMedium
USA
2.60
Draw
3.46
Belgium
2.87
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
USA 39.1%
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Total
3.2
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Soccer 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Soccer 2026 season report card.