Cagliari vs AS Roma prediction for October 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects AS Roma 1.96 - Cagliari 0.67. AS Roma is favored with a 67.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.6..
AS Roma
1.96
Projected Goals
VS
2.6 total
Cagliari
0.67
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AS RomaDrawCagliari
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 82.7% (1,907 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Cagliari
0.00.71.4
AS Roma
1.22.02.7
Projected
AS Roma 1.96 — Cagliari 0.67
Actual
AS Roma 4 — Cagliari 2
Expected Goals (xG)
AS Roma1.96
Cagliari0.67
17.6Shots15.9
6.9On Target5.6
5.8Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
92.1%
Over 1.5
74.4%
Over 2.5
48.9%
Over 3.5
27.0%
Under 2.5
51.1%
BTTS
47.1%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
14.1%
1-0
13.8%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.2%
Match Context
SERHigh
AS Roma
1.32
Draw
5.32
Cagliari
11.33
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.