Lazio vs Sassuolo prediction for October 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sassuolo 1.26 - Lazio 1.73. Lazio is favored with a 45.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Sassuolo
1.26
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Lazio
1.73
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SassuoloDrawLazio
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 77.2% (1,907 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lazio
1.01.72.5
Sassuolo
0.51.32.0
Projected
Sassuolo 1.26 — Lazio 1.73
Actual
Sassuolo 2 — Lazio 6
Expected Goals (xG)
Sassuolo1.26
Lazio1.73
16.4Shots15.2
5.8On Target5.7
5.7Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.5%
Over 1.5
80.6%
Over 2.5
57.4%
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 2.5
42.6%
BTTS
52.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.0%
Match Context
SERHigh
Sassuolo
3.87
Draw
3.64
Lazio
2.02
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.