Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United FC prediction for October 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Minnesota United FC 1.71 - Houston Dynamo 1.22. Minnesota United FC is favored with a 47.3% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Minnesota United FC
1.71
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Houston Dynamo
1.22
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Minnesota United FCDrawHouston Dynamo
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.0% (1,696 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Houston Dynamo
0.41.22.0
Minnesota United FC
0.91.72.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.71
Houston Dynamo1.22
19.2Shots16.9
6.9On Target6.1
6.0Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.0%
Over 1.5
79.5%
Over 2.5
54.2%
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 2.5
45.8%
BTTS
61.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.9%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Minnesota United FC
2.12
Draw
3.58
Houston Dynamo
3.54
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.