Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City prediction for October 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sporting Kansas City 1.71 - Portland Timbers 1.52. Sporting Kansas City is favored with a 42.0% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Sporting Kansas City
1.71
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Portland Timbers
1.52
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Sporting Kansas CityDrawPortland Timbers
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.8% (1,696 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Portland Timbers
0.71.52.3
Sporting Kansas City
0.91.72.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Kansas City1.71
Portland Timbers1.52
19.1Shots16.0
6.9On Target5.7
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.7%
Over 1.5
81.8%
Over 2.5
59.5%
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
40.5%
BTTS
61.6%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
6.3%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Sporting Kansas City
2.46
Draw
4.27
Portland Timbers
2.54
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.