Manchester United vs Chelsea prediction for October 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Chelsea 1.79 - Manchester United 1.25. Chelsea is favored with a 46.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Chelsea
1.79
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Manchester United
1.25
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
ChelseaDrawManchester United
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.9% (1,947 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Manchester United
0.51.22.0
Chelsea
1.01.82.6
Projected
Chelsea 1.79 — Manchester United 1.25
Actual
Chelsea 2 — Manchester United 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Chelsea1.79
Manchester United1.25
17.0Shots17.4
6.2On Target6.4
5.7Corners5.8
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.7%
Over 1.5
80.9%
Over 2.5
58.4%
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 2.5
41.6%
BTTS
52.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Chelsea
2.03
Draw
3.78
Manchester United
3.59
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. This game was simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.