Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects San Jose Earthquakes 1.6 - Minnesota United FC 1.42. San Jose Earthquakes is favored with a 42.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
San Jose Earthquakes
1.6
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Minnesota United FC
1.42
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
San Jose EarthquakesDrawMinnesota United FC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.7% (1,230 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Minnesota United FC
0.61.42.2
San Jose Earthquakes
0.81.62.4
Expected Goals (xG)
San Jose Earthquakes1.60
Minnesota United FC1.42
18.6Shots16.8
6.7On Target6.1
6.0Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.6%
Over 1.5
78.3%
Over 2.5
55.9%
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
44.1%
BTTS
60.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
7.0%
2-2
6.3%
Match Context
MLSMedium
San Jose Earthquakes
2.30
Draw
3.90
Minnesota United FC
2.93
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.