Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Los Angeles FC 1.77 - Portland Timbers 1.14. Los Angeles FC is favored with a 53.9% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Los Angeles FC
1.77
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Portland Timbers
1.14
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Los Angeles FCDrawPortland Timbers
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.4% (1,230 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Portland Timbers
0.41.11.9
Los Angeles FC
1.01.82.5
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles FC1.77
Portland Timbers1.14
18.8Shots15.8
6.7On Target5.6
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
77.4%
Over 2.5
53.8%
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
46.2%
BTTS
57.4%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
6.4%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Los Angeles FC
1.66
Draw
4.66
Portland Timbers
4.54
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.