New England Revolution vs Toronto FC prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Toronto FC 1.71 - New England Revolution 1.3. Toronto FC is favored with a 47.1% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
Toronto FC
1.71
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
New England Revolution
1.3
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Toronto FCDrawNew England Revolution
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (1,207 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
New England Revolution
0.51.32.1
Toronto FC
0.91.72.5
Projected
Toronto FC 1.71 — New England Revolution 1.3
Actual
Toronto FC 2 — New England Revolution 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.71
New England Revolution1.30
19.4Shots15.8
7.1On Target5.6
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
78.0%
Over 2.5
57.4%
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
42.6%
BTTS
60.0%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.7%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Toronto FC
2.04
Draw
3.85
New England Revolution
3.52
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.