Soccer

New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC Prediction

August 15, 2026

5,000 Monte Carlo simulations

New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC prediction for August 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Atlanta United FC 1.75 - New York Red Bulls 1.37. Atlanta United FC is favored with a 46.8% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..

Atlanta United FC
1.75
Projected Goals
VS 3.1 total
New York Red Bulls
1.37
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
46.8%
23%
30.3%
Atlanta United FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.9% (1,207 games)

Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile

New York Red Bulls
0.61.42.1
Atlanta United FC
1.01.82.5

Expected Goals (xG)

Atlanta United FC1.75
New York Red Bulls1.37
19.6Shots16.6
7.1On Target6.0
6.1Corners5.6

Goal Probabilities

Over 0.5
97.3%
Over 1.5
78.8%
Over 2.5
58.5%
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 2.5
41.5%
BTTS
62.3%

Most Likely Scores

1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.8%

Match Context

MLSMedium
Atlanta United FC
2.04
Draw
4.05
New York Red Bulls
3.36

AI Intelligence Analysis

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Edge Analysis

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Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.

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