FINAL: FC Cincinnati 2 — New York City FC 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected FC Cincinnati 1.72 - New York City FC 1.24 (FC Cincinnati at 49.4% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
FC Cincinnati
1.72
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
New York City FC
1.24
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
FC CincinnatiDrawNew York City FC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.2% (1,230 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
New York City FC
0.51.22.0
FC Cincinnati
0.91.72.5
Projected
FC Cincinnati 1.72 — New York City FC 1.24
Actual
FC Cincinnati 2 — New York City FC 1
Pick Results
UNDER 3.25totalWIN+0.46u
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Cincinnati1.72
New York City FC1.24
18.5Shots15.8
6.7On Target5.7
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.5%
Over 1.5
77.8%
Over 2.5
55.9%
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
BTTS
59.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.9%
Match Context
MLSMedium
FC Cincinnati
1.88
Draw
4.15
New York City FC
3.81
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Model total (2.96) sits +0.29 goals below market (3.25); Cincinnati's 0.48 xG edge over a weak NYCFC away attack (1.24 xG) supports a lower-scoring outcome than the market implies.
Key Factors
- Under edge: model 2.96 vs market 3.25 = +0.29 goals
- Cincinnati home xG 1.72 solidly above NYCFC away xG of 1.24 (0.48 gap)
- NYCFC's weak away attack (1.24 xG) suggests limited scoring output on the road
- Market total 3.25 appears inflated relative to underlying chance quality
Risk Factors
- Cincinnati's own scoring must materialize for total to land under — variance in finishing exists
- Market may be pricing recent scoring trends not fully captured in season xG averages
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
FC Cincinnati 49.4%
--
Total
3.0
+15.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.