Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Real Madrid 2.23 - Real Sociedad 0.97. Real Madrid is favored with a 67.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.2..
Real Madrid
2.23
Projected Goals
VS
3.2 total
Real Sociedad
0.97
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Real MadridDrawReal Sociedad
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 76.0% (1,247 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Real Sociedad
0.21.01.7
Real Madrid
1.52.23.0
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid2.23
Real Sociedad0.97
20.5Shots15.2
8.0On Target5.0
6.4Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.9%
Over 1.5
78.4%
Over 2.5
61.7%
Over 3.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
38.3%
BTTS
51.0%
Most Likely Scores
2-0
10.4%
2-1
10.1%
1-1
9.5%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
7.8%
Match Context
LALCritical
Real Madrid
1.32
Draw
5.95
Real Sociedad
8.87
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.