FINAL: Portland Timbers 2 — St. Louis City SC 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Portland Timbers 1.53 - St. Louis City SC 1.43 (Portland Timbers at 42.5% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Portland Timbers
1.53
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
St. Louis City SC
1.43
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Portland TimbersDrawSt. Louis City SC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (1,454 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
St. Louis City SC
0.71.42.2
Portland Timbers
0.81.52.3
Projected
Portland Timbers 1.53 — St. Louis City SC 1.43
Actual
Portland Timbers 2 — St. Louis City SC 2
Pick Results
UNDER 3.25totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Portland Timbers1.53
St. Louis City SC1.43
18.7Shots16.3
6.8On Target5.8
6.0Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.4%
Over 1.5
79.1%
Over 2.5
54.5%
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 2.5
45.5%
BTTS
59.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.1%
0-1
6.6%
Match Context
MLSMedium
Portland Timbers
2.48
Draw
3.99
St. Louis City SC
2.64
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Coin-flip MLS matchup with a trivial xG gap; the 2.16% model edge is inside noise and not worth pursuing during a cold streak.
Key Factors
- xG nearly equal: 0.10 gap (1.53 vs 1.43) is negligible
- Edge is marginal: 2.16% model advantage inside normal variance
- Draw risk substantial: 19.8% probability
- Market is fair: tight line suggests true probability near 41% ± 2%
Risk Factors
- Model cold streak: even small edges are suspect at 20% 7d WR
- Home ML historically weak: 43.5% historical WR
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Portland Timbers 42.5%
--
Total
3.0
+19.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded SOCCER 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the SOCCER 2026 season report card.