Toronto FC vs New England Revolution prediction for July 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects New England Revolution 1.67 - Toronto FC 1.29. New England Revolution is favored with a 46.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
New England Revolution
1.67
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Toronto FC
1.29
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
New England RevolutionDrawToronto FC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (1,163 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Toronto FC
0.51.32.1
New England Revolution
0.91.72.4
Projected
New England Revolution 1.67 — Toronto FC 1.29
Actual
New England Revolution 0 — Toronto FC 0
Expected Goals (xG)
New England Revolution1.67
Toronto FC1.29
18.7Shots16.2
6.8On Target5.8
6.0Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.8%
Over 1.5
77.9%
Over 2.5
55.0%
Over 3.5
42.4%
Under 2.5
45.0%
BTTS
59.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
Match Context
MLSMedium
New England Revolution
2.05
Draw
3.75
Toronto FC
3.59
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Home ML (NE) historically weak with moderate +0.38 xG edge but 24.5% draw risk and marginal market disagreement (-2.4%) make this a neutral skip; no compelling edge.
Key Factors
- xG advantage: NE 1.67 vs Toronto 1.29 = +0.38 xG (moderate, not dominant)
- Home ML historically weak: a supportive track record — -570 bps vs breakeven
- Draw probability 24.5% — nearly 1 in 4 chance NE bet loses despite home status
- Market slightly overweights NE by 2.4pt but this is within normal noise
- Totals marginal: +0.21 goal edge on historically mixed
Risk Factors
- Home ML historically weak: only a supportive track record historically, expected value is negative
- Draw at 24.5% erodes value of any moneyline bet in 3-way structure
- Market already pricing NE at 48.8% implies market has factored in their advantage
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Soccer 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Soccer 2026 season report card.