Toronto FC vs New York City FC prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects New York City FC 1.85 - Toronto FC 1.13. New York City FC is favored with a 53.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
New York City FC
1.85
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
Toronto FC
1.13
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
New York City FCDrawToronto FC
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.2% (1,172 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Toronto FC
0.41.11.9
New York City FC
1.11.92.6
Projected
New York City FC 1.85 — Toronto FC 1.13
Actual
New York City FC 1 — Toronto FC 1
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.85
Toronto FC1.13
18.9Shots16.3
6.8On Target5.8
6.0Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.3%
Over 1.5
77.6%
Over 2.5
56.4%
Over 3.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
43.6%
BTTS
59.8%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.6%
2-1
10.0%
2-0
8.8%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.1%
Match Context
MLSMedium
New York City FC
1.68
Draw
4.17
Toronto FC
4.91
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Home ML appears to have a 5.9% edge but is historically weak due to draw risk eating ~24% of outcomes; away ML has insufficient edge (1.94%) to justify betting despite being our best soccer category historically; totals have marginal +0.23 goal edge historically mixed. All markets fail minimum edge thresholds or hit historical support profitability problems.
Key Factors
- Home ML historical support WR: 42.9% (63 samples) despite 5.9% apparent edge — classic RED/historically mixed underperformance
- Draw risk: 24.06% model probability means 1-in-4 games result in LOSS for any ML bettor, capping home effective win prob at ~40.7%
- Away ML edge only 1.94% (22.31% vs 20.37% market) — insufficient to overcome SOCCER | ml | any historical support RED status (a supportive track record)
- Totals edge: +0.23 goals (2.98 model vs 2.75 market) is below 8% minimum edge threshold (0.23/2.75 = 8.4% by pct, but historical support is YELLOW a supportive track record)
- Recent soccer performance: 1-3 record (a supportive track record) in 30-day window; cyclical tier is NEUTRAL with weak signals
Risk Factors
- Lineup not confirmed for evening MLS match — potential last-minute changes could shift value
- ML bets auto-disabled by system since 2026-04-25 (z=-2.7 historically weak validation) — betting against system safeguard
- Recent draw rate in MLS (12.5% in last 7 days) is lower than European average but still represents 1-in-8 risk to ML bets, and model's 24% is elevated
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Soccer 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Soccer 2026 season report card.