Alexis Gautier vs Fares Zakaria prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fares Zakaria 0 - Alexis Gautier 0. Fares Zakaria is favored with a 59.2% win probability.
Fares Zakaria
1566
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Alexis Gautier
1496
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Fares ZakariaAlexis Gautier
Hard
Surface
ATP Challenger Roehampton
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (16,571 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Challenger Roehampton
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Alexis Gautier
Fares Zakaria
Fares Zakaria leads by 70 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Alexis Gautier SPW
62.1%
Below tour avg
Fares Zakaria SPW
65.8%
Above tour avg
● Fares Zakaria has a significant serve advantage (+3.7%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Fares Zakaria has a moderate 70-point Elo edge on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Fares Zakaria has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.