NYM vs CWS prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.4 - NYM 3.6. CWS is favored with a 62.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.1 total runs.
CWS
5.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSNYM
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.0% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
CWS
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph12% whiff
FF20%96 mph26% whiff
CU15%82 mph36% whiff
Sean Newcomb L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph28% whiff
SV33%83 mph29% whiff
SI23%93 mph7% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
72°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.062 Total: 1.034
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.20ERA
4.30FIP
9.31K/9
4.23BB/9
1.37WHIP
CWS
4.07ERA
4.34FIP
9.17K/9
4.42BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.8 runs
28.0% win
CWS F5
3.2 runs
57.3% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.90
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Jorge Polanco DH10-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.