WSH vs MIA prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 5.0 - WSH 3.2. MIA is favored with a 62.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
MIA
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
WSH
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAWSH
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
135
MIA
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jackson Kent L
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%93 mph3% whiff
SL24%87 mph18% whiff
CH21%86 mph38% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%94 mph9% whiff
SL21%86 mph12% whiff
CH18%87 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
90°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.988
thin air, 10mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.43ERA
5.16FIP
9.05K/9
4.78BB/9
1.56WHIP
MIA
4.13ERA
3.90FIP
9.57K/9
4.06BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.6 runs
25.0% win
MIA F5
3.1 runs
59.8% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
58.4%
YRFI
41.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
CJ Abrams SSDAY-TO-DAY
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.