TB vs BAL prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.7 - TB 3.5. BAL is favored with a 52.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
BAL
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TB
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTB
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
245
BAL
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nick Martinez R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph8% whiff
CH27%78 mph30% whiff
FC21%89 mph11% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph14% whiff
KC33%85 mph28% whiff
FC16%90 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
83°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.059 Total: 1.032
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.88ERA
4.11FIP
8.68K/9
2.76BB/9
1.19WHIP
BAL
4.30ERA
3.86FIP
8.71K/9
3.66BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.8 runs
37.2% win
BAL F5
2.1 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.6%
YRFI
39.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.75
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.