STL vs PHI prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 5.8 - STL 4.9. PHI is favored with a 57.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.7 total runs.
PHI
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
STL
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHISTL
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
357
PHI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Leahy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%94 mph13% whiff
CU16%83 mph26% whiff
SL16%89 mph22% whiff
Cristopher Sánchez L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI44%95 mph10% whiff
CH37%87 mph44% whiff
SL19%86 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
79°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.030
5mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.40ERA
4.40FIP
7.89K/9
4.23BB/9
1.37WHIP
PHI
4.39ERA
3.87FIP
10.28K/9
3.61BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.5 runs
33.8% win
PHI F5
3.4 runs
53.4% win
F5 Total
5.8
NRFI
49.3%
YRFI
50.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.15
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL5 injured
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Andre Pallante SP15-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
PHI8 injured
Luis Arraez 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.