FINAL: TEX 5 — LAA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 4.3 - LAA 3.3 (TEX at 58.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
TEX
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAA L4TEX
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.4% (3,503 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.3 — LAA 3.3
Actual
TEX 5 — LAA 3
Pick Results
LAA @ TEX NRFInrfiWIN+0.44u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%95 mph13% whiff
SL24%87 mph25% whiff
FS22%87 mph26% whiff
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC26%88 mph12% whiff
SI25%94 mph13% whiff
FS22%85 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
106°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.097 Total: 1.050
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.82ERA
4.19FIP
9.34K/9
3.82BB/9
1.31WHIP
TEX
4.22ERA
4.33FIP
8.53K/9
3.77BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-12.8% EV
+120
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-10.2% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.3% EV
-167
NRFI NRFI
+5.7% EV
-114
ML HOME
-2.2% EV
-154
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+1.4% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.8 runs
31.7% win
TEX F5
2.7 runs
51.9% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
59.4%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yusei Kikuchi
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Cal Quantrill
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Wade Meckler LF7-DAY IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C60-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Shaun Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jake Burger 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Despite Quantrill having a lower ERA than Kikuchi, the model's edge to home is negative relative to market (-1.8%), meaning the market is pricing TEX correctly or better than the model — no actionable edge exists.
Key Factors
- Model favors home (58.7%) less than market (60.5%) — market may be sharper here
- Extreme weather: 106.1F, thin air (3280 density altitude), 6mph out = significant run inflation expected
- NRFI shows modest +5.7% edge (56.2 model prob), the only actionable signal
- Both bullpens are mediocre (LAA 3.82 ERA, TEX 4.22 ERA)
- Kikuchi (6.27 ERA) has worse run prevention than Quantrill (3.38 ERA) despite similar stuff grades
Risk Factors
- No edge exists on the full-game ML — market is equal to or better calibrated than model
- Extreme heat and altitude create model uncertainty in run projections
- NRFI edge of 5.7% is too modest for high conviction on a currently unproven market
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 58.7%
+0.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+0.1 pts
Total
7.5
+1.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.