SF vs BOS prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 6.1 - SF 5.0. BOS is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
BOS
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SF
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSSF
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
357
BOS
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matt Wilkinson L
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF72%90 mph0% whiff
CH12%83 mph0% whiff
SL12%80 mph0% whiff
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%93 mph20% whiff
CH26%83 mph33% whiff
SI24%92 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
74°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.991
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.76ERA
4.60FIP
7.28K/9
4.63BB/9
1.50WHIP
BOS
3.24ERA
3.46FIP
9.62K/9
3.12BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.5 runs
33.4% win
BOS F5
3.5 runs
53.9% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.