OAK vs HOU prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.1 - OAK 4.2. HOU is favored with a 56.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
HOU
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUOAK
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
HOU
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brady Basso L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%93 mph14% whiff
SL21%84 mph23% whiff
CU19%78 mph38% whiff
Cristian Javier R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%93 mph22% whiff
ST24%80 mph31% whiff
CH16%86 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
94°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.019
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.14ERA
4.25FIP
9.68K/9
4.46BB/9
1.55WHIP
HOU
3.44ERA
3.98FIP
9.27K/9
3.56BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.4 runs
41.0% win
HOU F5
2.5 runs
43.3% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
58.1%
YRFI
41.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
Justin Sterner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.