TOR vs NYY prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.9 - TOR 3.3. NYY is favored with a 62.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
NYY
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TOR
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTOR
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
NYY
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%96 mph19% whiff
KC25%85 mph42% whiff
FF24%97 mph20% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%94 mph22% whiff
SL25%86 mph31% whiff
CH15%86 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
78°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.033
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.68ERA
4.15FIP
8.21K/9
3.77BB/9
1.29WHIP
NYY
3.05ERA
4.01FIP
8.50K/9
3.59BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.9 runs
31.0% win
NYY F5
2.8 runs
52.6% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Andres Gimenez SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Bloss SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.