Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff prediction for August 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Coco Gauff 0 - Jessica Pegula 0. Jessica Pegula is favored with a 56.4% win probability.
Coco Gauff
1982
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Jessica Pegula
1985
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Coco GauffJessica Pegula
Hard
Surface
WTA Cincinnati Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.0% (16,571 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Cincinnati Open
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Jessica Pegula
Coco Gauff
Jessica Pegula leads by 3 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Jessica Pegula SPW
59.5%
Above tour avg
Coco Gauff SPW
57.7%
Above tour avg
● Jessica Pegula has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Odds & Edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (3-point Elo gap)
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Jessica Pegula has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded TENNIS 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the TENNIS 2026 season report card.