Andrey Rublev vs Jakub Mensik prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jakub Mensik 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Jakub Mensik is favored with a 50.1% win probability.
Jakub Mensik
1656
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jakub MensikAndrey Rublev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.9% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrey Rublev
Jakub Mensik
Andrey Rublev leads by 18 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
62.7%
Below tour avg
Jakub Mensik SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-119
Model: 50%
Edge: -4.4%
Jakub Mensik ML
+108
Model: 50%
Edge: +2.0%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (18-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jakub Mensik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jakub Mensik 50.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded Tennis 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the Tennis 2026 season report card.