Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael Jodar prediction for May 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rafael Jodar 0 - Pablo Carreno Busta 0. Pablo Carreno Busta is favored with a 57.3% win probability.
Rafael Jodar
1548
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Carreno Busta
1460
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rafael JodarPablo Carreno Busta
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.9% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Carreno Busta
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar leads by 88 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
Rafael Jodar SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
● Pablo Carreno Busta has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
-128
Model: 57%
Edge: +1.2%
Rafael Jodar ML
+118
Model: 43%
Edge: -3.2%
Key Matchup Factors
- Rafael Jodar has a moderate 88-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Carreno Busta has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Pablo Carreno Busta 57.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →