Couvra, Martin vs Horschel, Billy prediction for July 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Horschel, Billy 114 - Couvra, Martin 118. Couvra, Martin is favored with a 66.7% win probability. The spread is -0.32.
Horschel, Billy
+0.05
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Couvra, Martin
-0.22
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Horschel, BillyCouvra, Martin
-101
Best Odds
+32.7%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Couvra, Martin
111118125
Horschel, Billy
107114121
Tournament Context
Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
66°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Couvra, Martin
Strokes Gained
-0.22/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.038 SG adj
Expected Finish
118th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Couvra, Martin
-0.22 SG
EF 118th
Skill Gap
-0.32 SG/round
tight edge for Horschel, Billy
Horschel, Billy
+0.05 SG
EF 114th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
66.7%
Books Say
50.2%
Edge
+32.7%
Couvra, Martin vs Horschel, Billy: Model gives Couvra, Martin 66.7% win probability vs 50.2% implied (+32.7% edge). Skill advantage: -0.32 SG/round. Expected finish: 118.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Couvra, Martin 66.7%
+32.7 pts
Spread
-0.3
+32.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →