Koepka, Brooks vs Reed, Patrick prediction for July 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Reed, Patrick 109 - Koepka, Brooks 100. Koepka, Brooks is favored with a 57.2% win probability. The spread is -0.28.
Reed, Patrick
+0.91
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Koepka, Brooks
+0.51
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Reed, PatrickKoepka, Brooks
+120
Best Odds
+25.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Koepka, Brooks
93100107
Reed, Patrick
102109116
Tournament Context
Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
66°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Koepka, Brooks
Strokes Gained
+0.51/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.057 SG adj
Expected Finish
100th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Koepka, Brooks
+0.51 SG
EF 100th
Skill Gap
-0.28 SG/round
tight edge for Reed, Patrick
Reed, Patrick
+0.91 SG
EF 109th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.2%
Books Say
45.5%
Edge
+25.8%
Koepka, Brooks vs Reed, Patrick: Model gives Koepka, Brooks 57.2% win probability vs 45.5% implied (+25.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.28 SG/round. Expected finish: 100.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Koepka, Brooks 57.2%
+25.8 pts
Spread
-0.3
+25.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →