PGA Tour Golf

Straka, Sepp vs Wiesberger, Bernd Prediction

July 9, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Straka, Sepp vs Wiesberger, Bernd prediction for July 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Wiesberger, Bernd 110 - Straka, Sepp 109. Straka, Sepp is favored with a 63.8% win probability. The spread is 0.12.

Wiesberger, Bernd
+0.08
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Straka, Sepp
+0.30
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
36.2%
63.8%
Wiesberger, BerndStraka, Sepp
-114
Best Odds
+19.7%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
FINALWiesberger, Bernd (T1) def Straka, Sepp (T72)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Straka, Sepp
102109116
Wiesberger, Bernd
103110117

Tournament Context

Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
66°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)

Player Profile — Straka, Sepp

Strokes Gained
+0.30/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.195 SG adj
Expected Finish
109th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Straka, Sepp
+0.30 SG
EF 109th
Skill Gap
+0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Straka, Sepp
Wiesberger, Bernd
+0.08 SG
EF 110th · Tour Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
63.8%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+19.7%

Straka, Sepp vs Wiesberger, Bernd: Model gives Straka, Sepp 63.8% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+19.7% edge). Skill advantage: +0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 109.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Straka, Sepp 63.8%
+19.7 pts
Spread
+0.1
+19.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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