Potgieter, Aldrich vs McKibbin, Tom prediction for July 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects McKibbin, Tom 99 - Potgieter, Aldrich 100. Potgieter, Aldrich is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
McKibbin, Tom
+0.25
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Potgieter, Aldrich
+0.13
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
McKibbin, TomPotgieter, Aldrich
-103
Best Odds
+14.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Potgieter, Aldrich
93100107
McKibbin, Tom
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
16 mph
Temp
65°F
Conditions
harder (+0.9)
Player Profile — Potgieter, Aldrich
Strokes Gained
+0.13/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.326 SG adj
Expected Finish
100th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Potgieter, Aldrich
+0.13 SG
EF 100th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
McKibbin, Tom
+0.25 SG
EF 99th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.9%
Books Say
50.7%
Edge
+14.2%
Potgieter, Aldrich vs McKibbin, Tom: Model gives Potgieter, Aldrich 57.9% win probability vs 50.7% implied (+14.2% edge). Expected finish: 100.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Potgieter, Aldrich 57.9%
+14.2 pts
Spread
-0.0
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →