Straka, Sepp vs Wiesberger, Bernd prediction for July 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Wiesberger, Bernd 113 - Straka, Sepp 111. Straka, Sepp is favored with a 62.8% win probability. The spread is 0.12.
Wiesberger, Bernd
+0.08
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Genesis Scottish Open
Straka, Sepp
+0.30
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Wiesberger, BerndStraka, Sepp
-119
Best Odds
+15.6%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Straka, Sepp
104111118
Wiesberger, Bernd
106113120
Tournament Context
Event
Genesis Scottish Open
Course
The Renaissance Club
Field
156 players
Wind
16 mph
Temp
65°F
Conditions
harder (+0.9)
Player Profile — Straka, Sepp
Strokes Gained
+0.30/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.195 SG adj
Expected Finish
111th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Straka, Sepp
+0.30 SG
EF 111th
Skill Gap
+0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Straka, Sepp
Wiesberger, Bernd
+0.08 SG
EF 113th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.8%
Books Say
54.3%
Edge
+15.6%
Straka, Sepp vs Wiesberger, Bernd: Model gives Straka, Sepp 62.8% win probability vs 54.3% implied (+15.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 111.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Straka, Sepp 62.8%
+15.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+15.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →