Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI prediction for September 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 20,000 game iterations and projects Movistar KOI 2 - Natus Vincere 3. Movistar KOI is favored with a 52.7% win probability. Movistar KOI wins more simulations despite the lower average score. Most likely series score: 3-2 (Best of 5).
Movistar KOI
2
Projected Maps
VS
Bo5 • LEC
Natus Vincere
3
Projected Maps
Series Win Probability
Movistar KOINatus Vincere
3-2
Most Likely Score
LOW
Confidence
20,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.8% (2,844 games)
Team Profiles
Natus Vincere
Early
48%
Mid
49%
Late
49%
Elo: 1459 · 📈 Scaling · Record: 6-4 (60%)
Movistar KOI
Early
50%
Mid
51%
Late
52%
Elo: 1506 · Record: 5-5 (50%)
Score Distribution
Natus Vincere winsMovistar KOI wins
0-3
12.0%
1-3
20.5%
2-3
20.2%
3-0
10.7%
3-1
16.1%
3-2
20.6%
Advantage Breakdown
Key Factors
Market Odds
Natus Vincere
+186
Movistar KOI
-185
championship_v2.2 · 20,000 sims · Uncertainty: 0.22
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets League of Legends Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 20,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded LOL 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the LOL 2026 season report card.