FINAL: COL 4 — SEA 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 6.2 - SEA 6.2 (COL at 53.7% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 12.4 total runs.
COL
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
SEA
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSEA
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W5COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
COL
468
Projected
COL 6.2 — SEA 6.2
Actual
COL 4 — SEA 5
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan Woo R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%96 mph22% whiff
SI19%96 mph9% whiff
SL14%87 mph31% whiff
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%92 mph15% whiff
CH12%88 mph10% whiff
CU11%79 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
69°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.140 Total: 1.071
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.06ERA
4.18FIP
8.68K/9
3.33BB/9
1.33WHIP
COL
4.91ERA
4.32FIP
7.85K/9
4.27BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
ML HOME
+23.0% EV
+164
ML AWAY
-16.7% EV
-179
F5_ML AWAY
-14.6% EV
-196
NRFI NRFI
-14.5% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.0% EV
-118
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+11.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.7 runs
46.8% win
COL F5
3.5 runs
41.7% win
F5 Total
7.2
NRFI
40.0%
YRFI
60.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.57
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
5%
Dominic Canzone SEA30.0%
ISO: 0.229 | Barrel: 11.2% | vs Gabriel Hughes | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.296 | Barrel: 16.3% | vs Bryan Woo | Park: 1.18x
Cal Raleigh SEA28.3%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 10.9% | vs Gabriel Hughes | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryan Woo
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Gabriel Hughes
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
RJ Petit RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
A 26.5% ML edge on a team the model itself only gives a 47% win probability is a mathematical contradiction flag, and combined with historically weakd home-ML history and Coors Field's legendary unpredictability, this screams model overconfidence rather than genuine value on Gabriel Hughes over Bryan Woo.
Key Factors
- historically weak home ML (54.2% training WR but real resolved picks worse, n=211) — automatic caution flag
- Hughes 6.88 ERA (C+) is a clear downgrade from Woo 4.19 ERA (B), consistent with market pricing
- Model shows 47% COL win probability alongside a claimed 26.5% edge — an internal contradiction signaling calculation instability
- Coors Field 1.18 park factor drives a 12.22-run total projection, an extreme outlier versus the 10.5 market line
- Model math here should not be trusted for directional confidence given the sub-50% prob / high-edge mismatch
Risk Factors
- CRITICAL: 26.5% edge with model win prob under 50% is a data-integrity red flag, not a betting signal
- historically weak home-underdog history performs worse in real money than training data suggests
- Coors Field's unpredictability historically overwhelms modest pitching-quality signals
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 53.7%
+10.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+10.8 pts
Total
10.5
+11.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.