FINAL: NYM 6 — PHI 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 3.8 - PHI 4.2 (PHI at 52.4% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
NYM
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMPHI
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHI L5NYM
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
NYM
246
Projected
NYM 3.8 — PHI 4.2
Actual
NYM 6 — PHI 3
Pick Results
PHI MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tim Mayza L
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI56%94 mph17% whiff
SL30%87 mph26% whiff
FF10%94 mph32% whiff
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%88 mph15% whiff
FF26%92 mph17% whiff
ST16%80 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
76°F6 mph wind
HR: 0.990 Total: 0.993
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.39ERA
3.96FIP
10.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.35WHIP
NYM
4.48ERA
4.30FIP
9.62K/9
3.76BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-13.4% EV
-120
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+13.1% EV
-101
F5_ML HOME
-12.8% EV
-128
ML HOME
-8.3% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.0% EV
+175
ML AWAY
+5.3% EV
+111
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.3 runs
44.4% win
NYM F5
2.1 runs
38.9% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.0%
YRFI
45.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.266 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x
Juan Soto NYM27.7%
ISO: 0.165 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Tim Mayza | Park: 0.96x
Bryce Harper PHI27.1%
ISO: 0.114 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.96x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tim Mayza
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Zac Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RP60-DAY-IL
Jesus Luzardo SP15-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
NYM8 injured
Jared Young 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Daniel Duarte RP15-DAY-IL
Robert Stock RP15-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Market total 8.5; model projects 7.95 runs (12.5% UNDER edge) from two LHP starters (Thornton 3.72 ERA, Mayza 3.3 ERA) in a Citi Field environment that's blowing in and slightly suppressing scoring.
Key Factors
- Thornton 3.72 ERA (B-, weak 0.22 stuff) vs Mayza 3.3 ERA (B-, better 0.42 stuff) — Mayza has a slight edge
- Both LHP starters reduce platoon variance for both lineups
- Citi Field wind 6 mph blowing in (0.993 total mult) reinforces UNDER lean
- NYM bullpen 4.48 ERA vs PHI bullpen 4.39 ERA — essentially equal, no late-inning boost either way
- Model 7.95 vs market 8.5 = 0.55-run UNDER edge (12.5%)
Risk Factors
- historically mixed totals broadly sit at a supportive track record — historical support data doesn't confirm the edge independently
- Two mediocre-ERA starters can still blow up in a bad outing, adding scoring variance
- PHI's lineup is historically a touch better offensively, which could push scoring back up
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 52.4%
-6.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.0 pts
Total
8.5
+13.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.