FINAL: CWS 8 — DET 11. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.1 - DET 4.5 (DET at 52.7% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
CWS
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSDET
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 4.1 — DET 4.5
Actual
CWS 8 — DET 11
Pick Results
DET MLmlWIN+0.57u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Sears L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph13% whiff
SL30%82 mph33% whiff
CH14%87 mph58% whiff
David Sandlin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%97 mph15% whiff
CU25%83 mph22% whiff
FC18%91 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
68°F7 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.997
5mph in
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.15ERA
4.53FIP
8.32K/9
4.11BB/9
1.30WHIP
CWS
3.81ERA
4.32FIP
9.16K/9
4.47BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-9.0% EV
-106
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.4% EV
+164
F5 OVER 4.5
-7.4% EV
-114
NRFI YRFI
-6.9% EV
-102
ML AWAY
+6.6% EV
+114
NRFI NRFI
-4.7% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.5 runs
43.5% win
CWS F5
2.4 runs
40.8% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
53.2%
YRFI
46.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Riley Greene DET30.0%
ISO: 0.199 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs David Sandlin | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.202 | Barrel: 15.3% | vs Andrew Sears | Park: 1.01x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.280 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Andrew Sears | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Sears
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
David Sandlin
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Kyle Finnegan RP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Both starters are well below average (Sears 5.83 ERA, Sandlin 6.09 ERA) making this closer to a coin flip than the market's -123 CWS price suggests, and DET's road-underdog profile has historically outperformed (a supportive track record in tracked away combos).
Key Factors
- Sears 5.83 ERA (B-) vs Sandlin 6.09 ERA (C+) — both poor, Sears slightly better
- CWS bullpen 3.81 ERA vs DET bullpen 4.15 ERA — 0.34-run gap favoring home relief
- Model DET 50.7% vs market implied 46.7% = 4.0% ML edge
- Rate Field wind 5.2 mph blowing in (0.997 total mult) — neutral to mild suppression
- DET's road-underdog favorite combo profile has run hot in tracked data (a supportive track record, n=27)
Risk Factors
- This specific historical support actually shows a supportive track record — YELLOW but below breakeven historically, tempering conviction
- Both starters carry real blow-up risk given ERAs above 5.8
- Kyle Finnegan (DET RP) and Kerry Carpenter (DET RF) both on IL — minor DET depth concern
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 52.7%
-7.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.4 pts
Total
8.5
+3.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.