OAK vs CLE prediction for September 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 5.2 - OAK 3.4. CLE is favored with a 74.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
CLE
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLEOAK
-1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 79.7% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
CLE
357
Projected
CLE 5.2 — OAK 3.4
Actual
CLE 5 — OAK 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mason Barnett R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%95 mph16% whiff
SL19%87 mph27% whiff
ST15%84 mph18% whiff
Daniel Espino R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF62%99 mph41% whiff
SL29%92 mph24% whiff
CU9%76 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
69°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.986 Total: 0.990
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.99ERA
4.34FIP
9.52K/9
4.68BB/9
1.53WHIP
CLE
3.36ERA
3.66FIP
10.18K/9
3.70BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.7 runs
24.8% win
CLE F5
3.3 runs
61.5% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
54.8%
YRFI
45.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Gage Jump SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE4 injured
Angel Martinez LFDAY-TO-DAY
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.