TOR vs TEX prediction for September 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.4 - TOR 3.9. TOR is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.3 total runs.
TEX
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXTOR
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.1% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
246
TEX
135
Projected
TEX 3.4 — TOR 3.9
Actual
TEX 7 — TOR 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph21% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH12%82 mph46% whiff
Kumar Rocker R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL38%83 mph41% whiff
SI29%94 mph8% whiff
FC14%90 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
94°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.063 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.42ERA
4.02FIP
8.47K/9
3.78BB/9
1.26WHIP
TEX
4.35ERA
4.48FIP
8.52K/9
3.79BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.2 runs
45.9% win
TEX F5
1.8 runs
35.0% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.8%
YRFI
40.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Rudy Martin Jr. RF10-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
MacKenzie Gore SPDAY-TO-DAY
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.