ATL vs HOU prediction for September 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.4 - ATL 4.2. HOU is favored with a 57.0% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.6 total runs.
HOU
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
ATL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUATL
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 4.4 — ATL 4.2
Actual
HOU 2 — ATL 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tyler Mahle R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph20% whiff
FS29%86 mph25% whiff
FC16%88 mph14% whiff
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph20% whiff
CH24%87 mph31% whiff
SL12%86 mph25% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
84°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.028
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.14ERA
3.47FIP
9.54K/9
3.04BB/9
1.13WHIP
HOU
3.52ERA
4.01FIP
9.16K/9
3.60BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
2.3 runs
39.6% win
HOU F5
2.6 runs
45.4% win
F5 Total
4.9
NRFI
48.9%
YRFI
51.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.