ARI vs STL prediction for June 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.8 - ARI 4.8. STL is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
STL
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLARI
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
357
STL
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eduardo Rodriguez L
ARI
FF40%92 mph19% whiff
CH28%86 mph18% whiff
FC13%88 mph9% whiff
Kyle Leahy R
STL
FF29%94 mph13% whiff
CU16%83 mph28% whiff
SL16%89 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
81°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.055 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.7% EV
-192
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-11.6% EV
-106
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.2% EV
+160
F5_ML AWAY
-7.2% EV
-112
ML AWAY
-5.3% EV
-104
F5_ML HOME
-3.8% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
2.6 runs
41.5% win
STL F5
2.8 runs
43.6% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
51.2%
YRFI
48.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
9%
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Kyle Leahy | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.318 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Nelson Velázquez STL28.1%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eduardo Rodriguez
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Kyle Leahy
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP15-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL8 injured
Masyn Winn SSDAY-TO-DAY
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE53.7% WR (n=119)
Model projects 51.7% home win prob (STL) with -2.3% edge — within noise, market correctly priced at -112 (52.9% implied). Both Kyle Leahy (C+, 0.416) and Eduardo Rodriguez (C+, 0.348) are mediocre starters. No actionable edge; market is right.
Key Factors
- Both SPs: C+ grade (Leahy 0.416, Rodriguez 0.348) — mediocre arms, minimal mismatch
- Model 51.7% home vs market 52.9% — 1.2% gap within noise; market correct
- Busch warm weather (80.9F, thin air mult 1.029) adds ~0.5 run to both teams equally
- 2.3% OVER edge below 8% threshold — not actionable
- Bullpen slight STL advantage (4.3 vs 3.28) but not determinant
Risk Factors
- Model-market gap tiny; no informational edge
- Both teams mediocre; no reason to favor one side
NEUTRAL MATCHUPMINIMAL EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 51.9%
-33.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.7 pts
Total
8.5
+2.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →